A national battle over congressional redistricting has some Democratic-led states saying they will work to counter efforts to create more Republican-leaning districts in Texas, though it’s unlikely Maine will join that effort.

Maine’s 2nd District is a swing district that has been targeted by Republicans as a pick-up opportunity and could factor into whether the party maintains its narrow control of the U.S. House of Representatives next year.

But the state’s small size and logistical hurdles to changing congressional district boundaries would stand in the way of redrawing lines here.

“There are those procedural roadblocks in place,” said Mark Brewer, a professor and chair of the political science department at the University of Maine. “I don’t know how you could get around those and if you could, it wouldn’t be before the 2026 election cycle.” 

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a national group focused on state legislatures, has called on Democrats across the country to use state legislative power to pursue redistricting opportunities and focus on winning battleground chambers next year in preparation for redistricting in 2030. Redistricting typically takes place every 10 years following the release of census data.

The effort comes after President Donald Trump pushed Texas Republicans to redraw district lines in an effort to give his party an advantage in the 2026 midterm elections, a move that resulted in Democratic lawmakers in that state fleeing Sunday in an effort to shut down a vote on the new borders.

Leaders in some Democratic-controlled states such as New York, California and Illinois have said they are exploring options to redraw congressional lines in their states in response.

A spokesperson for Gov. Janet Mills said Tuesday that she is not considering any actions related to redistricting, and Maine’s House speaker also said that the current process in Maine is fair and does not lend itself to any immediate changes to congressional boundaries.

“I respect leaders in other states thinking about how to respond to an egregious power grab by President Trump and his pals in Texas, but Maine’s process, which is enshrined in the state constitution, just doesn’t provide that sort of flexibility for us to be responsive in that way,” said House Speaker Ryan Fecteau, D-Biddeford. 

2ND DISTRICT BATTLEGROUND

Although Maine is small — it’s home to just two of the nation’s 435 congressional districts —its rural 2nd District could have an outsized impact on whether the party retains control of the U.S. House of Representatives next year.

Republicans currently hold a 219-212 advantage over Democrats in the House, with four vacancies, three of which were last filled by Democrats. Texas’ move to redraw the lines is anticipated to flip five seats to Republicans if it’s successful.

In Maine, incumbent Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat, won his race last year by less than 1 percentage point and is expected to face a competitive challenge again next year from former Republican Gov. Paul LePage.

“(The 2nd District) is probably more important than you think,” said Dan Shea, a professor of government at Colby College. “(Control of the House) is going to come down to just a handful of seats. And taking the 2nd District off the plate, in other words making it easier for a Democrat, for Jared, would be an important part of that razor-thin margin.”

Shea is skeptical, however, that Maine leaders would want to pursue redistricting prior to 2030. While states have different processes for establishing congressional districts, Shea said precedent and tradition have long held that redistricting takes place every 10 years after the release of new census data, though Texas also undertook a controversial redistricting in 2003.

“Mainers tend to play by the rules,” Shea said. “It’s more of our tradition to stick with the process we have in place and not rig the game. But on the other hand, I think Democrats across the country are saying, ‘How dare you go there? And what are our options if you do go there?’ I think it’s fair to say that if the Texas Legislature does go there, that Democratic legislatures across the country should consider counter measures.”

WHAT IS MAINE’S PROCESS?

Redistricting sooner than 2030 could be difficult in Maine. The state’s process for establishing congressional districts is established in the state constitution, which says the Legislature must establish a 15-member Legislative Apportionment Commission every 10 years following finalization of the most recent census.

The commission is tasked with reviewing congressional district boundaries and proposing changes while also ensuring both districts are as equally populated as possible. The Legislature must pass any map with a two-thirds majority, though it is not bound to only those maps drawn by the commission. The map is also subject to approval by the governor.

Fecteau, the House speaker, said that changing the process in the state constitution would be near impossible. Constitutional amendments in Maine require two-thirds support of the Legislature (a threshold Democrats could not achieve on their own) as well as approval from voters.

“Given those circumstances, I don’t see (changes to redistricting) as being a viable option,” he said. 

Several other states also use independent commissions to set congressional boundaries, which could make it harder for Democrats to counter Texas’ efforts.

In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul told reporters Monday that she is open to amending her state’s constitution to bypass the independent commission, though she acknowledged that it could be a lengthy process and would delay potential changes.

States that are most likely to look at redistricting are those that have more congressional seats, a clear advantage for one party in terms of voter demographics and where congressional lines are not already drawn to maximize those advantages, said Brewer, from the University of Maine. That includes California and New York, as well as Texas.

“It’s hard to envision these changes happening in New York or California, too, but at least there … the reward is bigger,” Brewer said. “We’re talking about four or five seats in each. Here we’re talking about solidifying a seat (the Democrats) already hold.”