Since launching Claw Coffee Roasters in Scarborough last November, Troy Cobb has faced his share of business challenges. But it’s the impending tariffs on his favorite Brazilian coffee beans that he worries could lead to even harder decisions.

Cobb roasts specialty-grade coffee from around the globe and figures as much as 30% of his bean inventory comes from Brazil.

He had already opened his business in a year when a drought in Brazil shrank the country’s coffee bean crop and caused prices to jump by $2 a pound. “That adds up quite a bit when you’re buying thousands of pounds of coffee,” he said.

Now, a 50% tariff imposed on Brazilian goods by President Donald Trump that went into effect this month could threaten his business model even more significantly. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that about 35% of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil. Cobb said he bought 1,500 pounds of Brazilian beans in July to try to get ahead of the expected price hike, and hopes the supply will last another couple of months.

This fall, Cobb may face some hard decisions, though he’s loath to pass any additional costs on to his customers. “The last thing we want to do is raise prices.”

Trump’s tariffs on imports were officially enacted Aug. 7, ranging between 10% and 50%, depending on the country and product. While the tariffs were levied on all manner of imported goods, they may be particularly undigestible in the food sector. Food retail and food manufacturing have some of the lowest profit margins — 1.7% and 7.7%, respectively, according to the Food Industry Association — of any American industry.

‘THE UNCERTAINTY IS A KILLER’

Still, exactly how much the tariffs will affect food pricing remains unclear. “Up to this point, we have seen relatively minimal impact,” said Andy Harig, the association’s vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development, noting that many food retailers and producers have taken a “wait-and-see” approach because of the Trump administration’s many false starts and plan changes leading up to the August tariff enactments.

“During COVID, every other phrase I said was ‘supply chain,'” Harig said. “Now, every other word I say is ‘uncertainty.'”

“The uncertainty is really a killer here,” said Amelia Finaret, associate professor of business and economics at Allegheny College in Pennsylvania and co-author of the book “Food Economics.” “It makes it so hard for farmers and businesses to plan. The uncertainty is really an extra harm on top of the tariffs themselves. American businesses are suffering here along with American consumers.”

Indeed, economic uncertainty is gripping many Maine food business owners right now. Nikaline Iacono, the owner of Vessel & Vine, a wine and specialty food shop in Brunswick, doesn’t expect to get any clarity on tariffs for another year, assuming they remain in effect. “Right now, we’re just seeing people trying to make educated guesses as to how it’s going to affect them,” she said.

A 30% tariff won’t necessarily lead to a 30% price increase at the store, because importers, distributors and retailers may be able to absorb some of the cost, depending on their profit margins.

Complicating matters further, the cost of packaging for some products is also rising because of tariffs. Experts say consumers can certainly expect higher prices for a broad range of imported items like wine, cheese and olive oil from Europe, rice from Asia and everyday fresh produce like tomatoes from Mexico (about 70% of America’s fresh tomatoes come from Mexico, according to the Florida Tomato Exchange).

“Our most recent consumer survey showed that they’re very concerned about tariffs and price increases specifically tied to them. Consumers are incredibly sophisticated after COVID,” Harig said, noting that the public is also “price sensitive” after the high inflation of 2022-23.

“Food is important to me, so I don’t scrimp on quality, and I’ll pay what I have to pay,” Deb Dachos, of Saco, said while standing outside her local Hannaford supermarket on a recent Thursday. “But there are a lot of people who can’t do that, so I’m very concerned for them.”

John Ramsey, of Old Orchard Beach, estimates he’s paying about 15% more for groceries than he was a year ago, in part due to inflation. “It’s pretty bad,” he said. “And it’s only going to get worse.”

“There are a lot of moving parts, and it’s going to take a long time to really figure out how much prices did actually increase, but the overall impact of tariffs is going to be price increases to U.S. consumers,” Finaret said. “These tariffs are framed as a tax on foreign countries, but they are definitely not. They are a tax on American consumers.”

A PRICING ROLLERCOASTER

The owners of small food businesses say they are starting to feel the pinch as the cost of their goods jumps. They’re struggling to find ways to keep from passing the burden on to customers. Sometimes their suppliers will absorb some of the hit, while in other instances, they need to take some of the loss themselves.

Fresh, perishable products have been among the first affected, since importers and retailers couldn’t simply stock up on inventory before the tariffs took effect. Vince Maniaci, co-owner of The Cheese Iron in Scarborough, said his cheeses cost about $6 a pound more on average since the tariffs, with his Swiss Emmentalers, Gruyères and Raclettes up as much as 35%.

“When you have perishables, you want to take the hit on your end as well, because you want to get that inventory moving,” he said, noting that The Cheese Iron is absorbing some of the increased cost and cutting into profit. “But as such a small business, we have to make sure we don’t cut into it too far.”

Sai Guntaka, owner of Taj Indian Cuisine in South Portland, expects the Royal brand basmati rice Taj offers free with every entrée — and in unlimited portions at its buffet table — will nearly double in price because of the 50% tariff on Indian rice the Trump administration plans to enact Aug. 27.

Still, Guntaka is resolved to swallow the higher cost. “I am not increasing my prices no matter what,” he said recently, speaking by phone from India where he’d traveled to purchase ingredients. “I don’t want to raise my prices now and then go back to regular prices later. I don’t want to confuse my customers.”

“You don’t want to put your customers through the rollercoaster you’re going through,” agreed Nikoline Ostergaard, co-owner of Sødt, a Portland candy shop that opened in May specializing in Scandinavian sweets. Her store has a “pick and mix” business model, where customers select candy from bulk bins and pay by weight. But tariffs have forced Ostergaard to sell Sødt’s most popular item, Bubs candy from Sweden, in separately packaged, $15.99 bags.

“If we were to sell the Bubs by weight, we’d be taking a 50% loss,” she said. “I hope consumers understand that it’s not the business owners. And I think most people are understanding of that, but I hope they continue to support small local businesses, because it’s out of our control.”

“We’re all working hard to figure this out so the customer doesn’t have to pay the price,” said Mary Allen Lindemann, owner of Coffee By Design. “But I can’t pay the people here less, and I can’t have the quality go down. It’s every day, and it’s so much energy we could be using in other ways.”

“Businesses are having to spend a lot of time to figure all this out, which is another cost to them and their employees,” said Finaret. “And the smaller the business, the less human power they have to deal with it. A company that just wants to sell great olive oil or coffee now has to become trade experts too.”

FAR-REACHING, UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

Some say the bitter irony is that, at least in the food sector, the tariffs are unlikely to achieve their stated purpose.

“One of the main goals of these tariffs is to supposedly bring back jobs to the U.S., but for food, that’s going to be particularly challenging, because the U.S. doesn’t have the climate or the infrastructure or the experience to produce certain crops,” Finaret said. “For food imports, the tariffs are not going to be having any of the intended effect.”

Harig used the example of cucumbers, explaining that 90% of the cucumbers Americans consume are imported. He pointed to a recent study that showed if the United States produced enough cukes to meet the national demand, it would practically double their price.

Iacono said that to believe the tariffs wouldn’t have far-reaching, unintended consequences is “juvenile.”

“Economics are inherently a social science, and I think that people forget that,” she said. “It’s based on behavioral patterns. We live in a global economy, so that means we are very connected. So assuming that a tariff on EU wines is only going to affect that product — it’s just not the case, it’s not what we’re seeing.

“The human impact to me is much more devastating than the economic impact,” Iacono added. “Producers and artisans are not going to be able to continue to make a living.”

Still, while tariff-related price hikes are an unwelcome development for both businesses and consumers, industry insiders expect both groups will ultimately be able to weather the market disruption.

“We don’t foresee food shortages as a result of this,” Harig said. “The supply chain is resilient. This is not a COVID-equivalent event. Food is still going to be (relatively) affordable, still safe, still abundant.” He said consumers may need to adjust their shopping strategies and find comparable substitutes for certain items that cost significantly more.

Iacono said the turmoil is simply part of running a business. “You’re constantly responding to external situations and just trying to figure out how to navigate it. It’s nothing new. We made it through COVID and many other things.”

Staff Writer Michelle Voicu contributed to this story.