The unemployment rate in Maine is on a historic run, and the state’s metropolitan areas have some of the lowest jobless rates in the nation, according to recent federal data.

Among 387 metro areas in the country analyzed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in June, the Portland-South Portland area had the third-lowest unemployment rate at 2.2%. Only two metro areas — Sioux Falls and Rapid City, both in South Dakota — had lower rates.

Lewiston-Auburn tied for 19th with a 2.9% unemployment rate, and the Bangor region tied for 28th at 3.0%.

The drivers of low jobless rates in these areas are distinct. Experts say housing development has given Lewiston-Auburn a boost, Bangor is seeing an increase in tourist traffic, and the life sciences industry has been flocking to Portland.

The recent release of the June data, which economists broadly interpreted as bad news for the U.S. economy, prompted President Donald Trump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The president claimed without evidence that the numbers generated by now-former commissioner Erika McEntarfer and her agency are “phony” and “rigged” for “political purposes.” But experts say such data is nearly impossible to fudge, while Maine business leaders think the latest numbers are a fairly accurate reflection of where the state stands.

The June jobless rates broken down by metro area aren’t seasonally adjusted — a tool used by economists to account for changes caused by seasonal factors, like summer jobs.

“In summer, Maine being Vacationland, unemployment is always lower than it is in the winter,” said Glenn Mills, deputy director of the Maine labor department’s Center for Workforce Research and Information

But Maine’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is still on the decline, having fallen from 3.5% in March to 3.3% in June, and it remains lower than the national mark.

Unemployment rates are measured every other month, and, in the past 17 years, Maine’s has only eclipsed the nation’s three times.

The unadjusted nationwide unemployment rate in June was 4.4%, while the seasonally adjusted rate was 4.1%.

AGE, SKILLS, HISTORY ARE KEY FACTORS

Maine’s median age as of 2023 was 44.8, according to U.S. census data, making it the oldest state in the union.

However, wisdom is not the only thing that comes with age. It’s also likely the primary reason the state’s unemployment rate has remained so low, Mills said.

“Older people are more established,” Mills said. “They’re less likely to lose a job, less likely to (be entering) the labor force.”

The unemployment rate does not simply count the number of people without jobs; rather, it’s the percentage of anyone of working age who is looking for a job. That includes people entering the workforce for the first time, students seeking summer jobs and those who are temporarily without jobs as they make a shift in their career.

An older population often results in a less competitive field of applicants, to job-seekers’ delight.

“We have about 21% of the state population that’s 65 or older,” said Michael Cauvel, an associate professor of economics at the University of Southern Maine. “People who are available to work might have an easier time finding a job because a smaller share of the population is either working or looking.”

But age doesn’t tell the full story. The skillset of a given state’s workers, which industries are growing and shrinking, geography and economic history are also key factors, Cauvel said.

“In the Great Recession back in 2007, a lot of the areas that were hit the hardest by that were those that had more manufacturing employment,” he said. “Maine doesn’t really fall into that category.”

Maine’s economy is growing in the professional services industry, which encompasses everything from business consultants and law practices to marketing specialists, and remains strong in relatively stable industries like health care.

“People need health care, and particularly in a state like Maine, where we are the oldest in the nation, there’s going to be a lot of health care jobs,” Cauvel said.

HOUSING PLAYS A CRITICAL ROLE

Economists also often assess what percentage of the population is considered part of the workforce when interpreting unemployment data.

“Before the pandemic, Maine and the U.S. were pretty similar — around 62% to 63% of the population was either working or looking for a job,” Cauvel said. “That national average of labor force participation has rebounded much more than it has in Maine.”

That indicates the number of jobs is holding fairly steady but fewer Mainers are looking for work, which can contribute to a dip in the unemployment rate.

That’s something Quincy Hentzel, president and CEO of the Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce, said Maine needs to recognize — and remedy.

“We really need to be attracting more workers to our region,” Hentzel said, “and I think one of the biggest barriers we’re facing right now in this effort is the lack of housing.”

Cauvel said that when the cost of housing is high, would-be transplants can be dissuaded from moving, even if the area is full of employers in their desired field.

“It’s really costly to move,” he said. “People might move for a job, but if they were to do that, it’s probably going to have to be for a much better job than the one that they could get if they waited a few more months in the place that they live.”

Lewiston-Auburn, one of the fastest-growing metro areas in Maine, is seeing some of the benefits of its housing boom.

“You talk to any employer in the state, having enough housing — stable housing — is a key piece in making sure that you can both get the workforce and keep the workforce,” said Shanna Cox, president and CEO of the Lewiston-Auburn Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce.

That’s resulting in an influx of people moving to the region, from both inside and outside Maine.

“Our population growth in the Lewiston-Auburn region is at about 6.6%,” Cox said. “For Maine, it’s only 4.6%.”

Housing development and construction work also creates jobs, several of the experts noted.

DIVERSE, GROWING AND STABLE INDUSTRIES

Hentzel described industries like health care and education — which the Portland, Lewiston-Auburn and Bangor regions all have a fair share of — as “relatively recession-proof.”

Portland is seeing a lot of growth in life sciences, she said, a benefit of the city’s relative proximity to Boston.

“We have many companies that have been choosing Portland for their headquarters,” Hentzel said. “I think that’s one of the driving factors of our low unemployment rate.”

In Bangor, construction and the trades are on the rise, and businesses in those industries are in need of more workers, according to Anne Krieg, the city’s director of community and economic development.

Meanwhile, the city has seen a significant increase in tourism since the pandemic.

“Pre-COVID, the average-night stay was just two nights in Bangor. Last year, that number went up to four nights,” Krieg said. “We are seeing more people making Bangor part of their Maine adventure.”

That has resulted in growth in the area’s retail and restaurant sectors in recent years. Part of that boost is likely due to Maine’s size and many attractions: It’s difficult, if not impossible, to experience it all in one go.

“There’s a lot of repeat visitation in Maine,” Krieg said. “People from other parts of the country say, ‘I’m going to go to Maine and maybe I’m going to try somewhere different this time.’”

But the tourism boost is simply that: a boost. The region’s main industries, such as health care and education, make for a balanced, year-round economy, Krieg said.

Cox said Lewiston-Auburn’s low unemployment rate is a product of diversity. Business management, finance and social services, along with the trades, are growing.

“We have diversified sectors with diversified career paths and a diverse population,” she said. “It just creates more opportunities to find the right matches. … I think that’s a real strength of this region.”

Numbers tell a great deal of the story, experts say, but when it comes to the economies of specific regions and metro areas, the abstract factors are just as important to consider.

“We care about things that are harder to measure but still matter quite a bit when we talk about jobs,” Cauvel said. “Do people find meaning in the work they do? Do they like going to work or dread it? Those things are difficult to assess.

“The availability of jobs is important, but what’s also important is how much they pay and whether they are good jobs in other ways too.”